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Political meme coins surged over 7% in the last 24 hours as Polymarket odds in favor of Kamala Harris winning the 2024 Presidential Election surpass Donald Trump bets.
Kamala Harris just took the lead. pic.twitter.com/ULNFB8dvNg — Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 9, 2024
An Aug. 9 X post by Polymarket shows that bettors on the decentralized platform see a 49% chance of Kamala Harris winning the White House this election. Meanwhile, the platform’s users predict a 48% chance of a Trump victory.
Kamila Harris Moves Ahead of Donald Trump in Polls After VP Pick
In recent national head-to-head polls, SurveyUSA showed Harris leading Trump by three points at 48%-45%; Morning Consult gave her a four-point lead at 48%-44%; YouGov and CBS News reported a one-point advantage for Kamala Harris at 50%-49%; and the University of Massachusetts Amherst poll put her ahead by three points at 46%-43%. These results were generally within the margin of error.
Tatishe Nteta, a professor of political science and director of the UMass Amherst poll, highlighted a significant trend: a seven-point shift toward the Democrats since January, when Trump held a four-point lead over Joe Biden.
“For weeks after the first presidential debate in June,” Nteta noted, “Democratic donors, prominent officials, and media figures argued that President Joe Biden faced slim chances of defeating former President Donald Trump and called for Biden to step aside.
Positive Favorability Ratings
Harris also received encouraging news from The Hill, which, in its “ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results,” showed her with a positive favorability rating for the first time following a sharp increase since mid-July, when Biden stepped down.
However, as expected, August polls from the seven battleground states where the election is anticipated to be decided provided a more varied picture.
In August, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, found Kamala Harris up by one point in Georgia but trailing Trump by two points in Arizona and one point in Pennsylvania. Trafalgar/Insider Advantage, a right-leaning group, showed Trump ahead by two points in Georgia.
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